Updated: Tuesday, October 17, 2017 07:19 AM
Monday saw another beautiful fall day in Magalia as mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures abounded. A few high clouds passed overhead from a westerly upper air flow, but the sun dominated. Subtropical moisture was responsible for the high clouds. The afternoon high at this location reached 79.9° at 1:10 pm, after a morning low of 57.0° at 3:20 am. The peak wind speed was only 5 mph out of the southwest at 1:30 pm.
This morning is seeing some high Cirrus clouds passing through, along with slightly cooler temperatures compared to 24 hours ago. There is an offshore subtropical low pressure area to our southwest which is pumping some high clouds into Nor-Cal. The low temperature so far this morning has been 57.5° at 6:04 am. The dew point temperature is running at 22°, so it is still quite dry outside. Drainage winds overnight have been out of the northeast at 1-3 mph.
Today should see mostly sunny skies, except for some high clouds at times as high pressure remains over Northern California. A slightly cooler air flow off the ocean should allow for slightly lower temperatures compared to Monday. The afternoon high is forecast to reach about 77°, and the low tonight down to about 55°. Winds this afternoon should generally be out of the south to southwest at 5-6 mph. Winds should shift to the northeast tonight at 1-4 mph.
Wednesday should be somewhat the same as today except for slightly cooler temperature, and possibly some more high clouds than today. The temperature range should be about 76°/52°. Winds during the afternoon should be southwesterly at about 6 mph.
Thursday should be a day of change as an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska drops a cold front southward into Northern California along with an associated cold front which will likely bring our region some much needed rainfall. As of now, there is a 0% chance of measurable precipitation during the morning hours as the main cold front will still be out of the region. As the day progresses and the cold front approaches, high and mid-level clouds should be on the increase, becoming mostly cloudy by later in the day or evening. Precipitation odds increase to a 5% chance by early afternoon, and rising to a 50% chance by late afternoon into late Thursday night. Odds continue to rise to a 65% chance by late Thursday night into early Friday morning. The current forecast model has about 0.28" of rain falling by Friday afternoon, which is almost half an inch less than yesterday's forecast model. "If" the subtropical moisture to our southwest somehow combines with the cold front, we could see higher precipitation totals, but is currently not predicted to do so at this time. The snow level could drop down to about 5900' by about Friday morning, but will rise a little during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures should drop back to below normal on Thursday, with a high temperature predicted at 66°, and the low Thursday night near 49°. Winds will increase out of the south to southeast on Thursday morning up to 10 mph, and as high as 16 mph by late Thursday afternoon into the late evening hours.
Friday should see a 65% chance of rainfall early morning hours, gradually decreasing to a 25% chance throughout the afternoon, and a 5% chance by late afternoon into the night. Southerly winds during the early morning hours could reach 15 mph, but should decrease during the day down to about 3-6 mph during the afternoon. The temperature range is forecast at 57°/46°.
This weekend should see mostly fair skies and warmer temperatures as high pressure builds back into the region. There is a 5% chance of a stray shower throughout Saturday as moisture passes just to our north. Sunday has a 0% chance of precipitation. The afternoon high by Sunday is forecast at 73°. Next week currently looks to be fair and mild as high pressure pushes the storm track well to our north. Have a great Tuesday. Bob